The big debate at Leeds United currently concerns the number one position at Elland Road amid questions over Illan Meslier’s suitability for the team this season.
Daniel Farke has already confirmed that Karl Darlow will be between the sticks when the Whites face off against Luton Town in the Championship this weekend, which will be a huge chance for the former Newcastle United man to nail down a place in the side.
The West Yorkshire outfit are currently competing for promotion to the Premier League – sat in second place as it stands – and the Wales international now has an opportunity to play a key role in an ascension to the top-flight.
Darlow has yet to make a Championship appearance for Leeds this season, but has kept two clean sheets in three Nations League matches for Wales, and it remains to be seen if he can be an upgrade on the French stopper.
Meslier’s form for the Whites throughout the 2024/25 campaign has been a concern, though, and it seems like the right call for Farke to take him out of the firing line this weekend.
Why Leeds are right to drop Illan Meslier
The former Lorient goalkeeper was in the spotlight once again when Leeds were held to a 2-2 draw by Swansea last weekend after he fumbled a cross to allow Harry Darling to score and let a shot from Zan Vipotnik squirm under him at the near post – undoing the good work he did to save a penalty.
He has started all 39 of the club’s matches in the Championship so far this term and that clash with the Swans was far from the first time that he has let the side down.
The left-footed dud has conceded 2.73 more goals than expected, based on the xG of the shots against his goal, which suggests that the Frenchman has been well below average as a shot-stopper.
Meslier has also made three errors that have directly led to goals for the opposition this season, the most famous of which may well be the one against Sunderland in the last minute at the Stadium of Light.
All of this suggests that Farke is right to finally take the 25-year-old liability out of the starting line-up because he has underperformed as a shot-stopper and made too many errors to gift goals to the opposition.
Meslier’s poor form this season has also caused some supporters to look back at former goalkeepers who have been let go during the French flop’s time at Elland Road, including Italian stopper Elia Caprile.
Leeds United's error with Elia Caprile
The young goalkeeper spent two-and-a-half years with the club’s academy, keeping five clean sheets in 19 U21 matches, and was sent out on loan to the third tier of Italian football in the 2021/22 campaign.
Caprile kept 12 clean sheets in 36 Serie C matches in that season, whilst Meslier had started all 38 of the club’s Premier League games under Marcelo Bielsa and Jesse Marsch combined.
At that point, it did not seem realistic that the Italian would overtake the Frenchman because he had just played third tier football, whilst the Leeds number one was playing week-in-week-out in the top-flight.
That led to Victor Orta and Marsch sanctioning a deal to send Caprile to Serie B side Bari on a permanent deal, which turned out to be an error on the club’s part as he went on to join Napoli one year later.
Appearances
23
15
Goals conceded per game
1.2
0.9
Save success rate
75%
77%
Goals prevented
+0.96
+5.84
Saves made
80
43
Error led to goal
1
0
As you can see in the table above, he has spent the last two seasons on loan at Empoli and Cagliari in the Serie A and caught the eye with his impressive shot-stopping skills.
This suggests that Leeds messed up with Caprile, because he is currently outperforming Meslier whilst playing in a major league, but it was difficult for the club to predict that rise after he had played in the third tier in Italy.
A bigger blunder by Leeds was their decision to allow Joel Robles to leave on a free transfer in the summer of 2023, as he could have been a dream replacement for the French dud.
Why Joel Robles was the perfect Illan Meslier replacement
The experienced Spaniard played four times in the Premier League at the end of the 2022/23 campaign under Sam Allardyce, who dropped Meslier, before the club released him that summer.
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That has turned out to be an even bigger mistake than the decision to move Caprile on because the former Wigan Athletic man was a veteran presence between the sticks with top-flight experience, whilst the Italian was an inexperienced and young prospect who had yet to prove himself when the Whites let him leave.
Meslier had just conceded a staggering 12.4 more goals than expected based on the post-shot xG against him in the Premier League, which meant that he was heading into the Championship in poor form.
The 25-year-old dud has now gone on to concede 7.22 more goals than expected and made four errors that have directly led to goals in the second tier since the start of last term, which shows that he has continued to be a liability between the sticks.
Robles, who was hailed as an “incredible” teacher by Marc Roca, should have been kept as an experienced pair of hands to step in for Meslier once it was clear that his poor form had followed him to the Championship, as he has gone on to prove his quality in Portugal with Estoril.
Appearances
39
24
Saves made
65
77
Saves from inside the box
35
57
Save success rate
71%
68%
Goals prevented
-2.73
+6.84
Error led to goal
3
1
As you can see in the table above, the Spanish titan currently plays for Estoril and has significantly outperformed Meslier whilst playing in a top division.
Robles has consistently bailed his team out, almost preventing seven goals, and these statistics suggest that Leeds would have conceded far fewer goals if they had a goalkeeper of his shot-stopping ability between the sticks instead of their current number one.
Therefore, Leeds already let a perfect upgrade on Meslier leave for £0 when they released the former Wigan and Everton man on a free transfer back in the summer of 2023.
The 34-year-old colossus is proving that age is just a number as he continues to shine in a top European league for Estoril, whilst his former teammate continues to struggle in the Championship.
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Leeds could have more points on the board right now if they had a reliable shot-stopper who could consistently prevent goals, like Robles, as they may not have dropped points against Sunderland or Swansea away – for example – without Meslier’s errors.